Formulate Hypothesis: Problem Statement Guide

Formulate Hypothesis is Quadrant 3 of the action-learning methodology. This is where you transform your insights into a clear, testable problem statement.

What is a Hypothesis?

Hypothesis = A specific statement about the problem and your proposed solution approach

Format:

“We believe that [target audience] experiences [problem] because [root cause]. If we [solution approach], then [expected outcome].”

Why Hypotheses Matter

A good hypothesis:

Focuses your efforts
Makes assumptions explicit
Creates testable predictions
Guides solution design
Allows you to know if you succeeded

The Hypothesis Formula

Component 1: Target Audience

Who specifically are you solving for?

❌ Vague: “People in Lagos”
✅ Specific: “Market traders in Yaba with 2-10 employees”

Be Precise:

Demographics (age, occupation, income)
Geography (specific neighborhoods)
Behaviors (daily routines, existing solutions they use)

Component 2: Problem

What specific problem do they experience?

❌ Vague: “Transportation is difficult”
✅ Specific: “Spend 1-2 hours daily on last-mile travel from bus stops to market stalls”

Be Measurable:

Time wasted
Money lost
Effort required
Frequency of occurrence

Component 3: Root Cause

Why does this problem exist? (From your Quadrant 2 insights)

❌ Surface: “No apps available”
✅ Root: “Informal transportation operates on trust networks, not digital platforms, making real-time coordination impossible”

Component 4: Solution Approach

What type of solution might work? (Not detailed design yet)

❌ Too Detailed: “A React Native app with Firebase backend”
✅ Right Level: “A digital platform connecting informal transporters with predictable demand”

Component 5: Expected Outcome

What measurable change do you predict?

❌ Vague: “People will be happier”
✅ Measurable: “Reduce last-mile travel time by 30 minutes daily for 80% of users”

Complete Hypothesis Examples

Example 1: Waste Management

“We believe that small market traders in Yaba markets experience daily disruption to business due to uncollected waste because municipal services prioritize residential areas and lack budget for frequent commercial pickups. If we create a collective payment system where traders pool funds for private waste collection services, then 95% of participating stalls will have waste removed within 24 hours of disposal, improving market hygiene and reducing setup time by 20 minutes daily.”

Example 2: Financial Access

“We believe that female street vendors earning ₦5,000-15,000 daily experience inability to save money or access emergency funds because traditional banks require minimum balances and documentation they can’t provide, while local savings groups lack security and accountability. If we provide a mobile-based daily savings system with peer verification and blockchain-based transparency, then 70% of users will save at least ₦1,000 weekly and have verifiable savings records for future credit access.”

Testing Your Hypothesis

Is it Specific Enough?

Ask yourself:

Can I identify my target users in real life?
Can I measure if the problem is solved?
Can I test this in 2-4 weeks?
Are my assumptions explicit?

Is it Realistic?

Red flags:

❌ Requires massive behavior change
❌ Depends on government action
❌ Needs years to see results
❌ Solves everything at once

Good signs:

✅ Builds on existing behaviors
✅ Shows results quickly
✅ Addresses one core problem well
✅ Can validate with small test

Common Mistakes

❌ Solution in Disguise - “We believe people need an app…”
❌ Too Broad - “We believe Lagos residents need better infrastructure”
❌ No Root Cause - Skipping the “because” part
❌ Unmeasurable Outcome - “People will be satisfied”
❌ Multiple Problems - Trying to solve 5 things at once

Refining Your Hypothesis

First Draft → Final Version

First Draft:

“We believe students need better education because schools are bad. If we build an e-learning platform, they’ll learn better.”

Problems: Vague audience, no root cause, no measurable outcome

Final Version:

“We believe that secondary school students in public schools in Surulere experience inability to practice STEM concepts outside classroom because lack of lab equipment and home internet limits hands-on learning to 2 hours weekly. If we provide offline mobile simulations and SMS-based quizzes with peer learning groups, then students will practice STEM skills 5+ hours weekly and improve test scores by 15% within one term.”

Documentation

On your team page (/team/[your-team]/formulate-hypothesis), include:

Complete Hypothesis Statement (using the formula)
Key Assumptions (what must be true for this to work?)
Success Criteria (how will you know if you’re right?)
Testing Plan (how will you validate this?)

Quality Checklist

✅ Target audience clearly defined
✅ Problem is specific and measurable
✅ Root cause from Quadrant 2 insights
✅ Solution approach (not detailed design yet)
✅ Expected outcome is measurable
✅ Testable within hackathon timeframe
✅ Assumptions made explicit

Moving Forward

Once you have a solid hypothesis:

Get feedback from mentors during check-ins
Revise based on critiques
Document on your team page
Move to Quadrant 4: Define Opportunity

Define Opportunity Guide →

Remember: A hypothesis is not a commitment. It’s a starting point for testing. You might pivot based on what you learn during prototyping.